Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes

Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputación

Experimental Sciences & Mathematics

I started working on climate variability at the Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Spain) in 1992, where I did my PhD. I then worked as a postdoc in Météofrance (Toulouse, France), at the Instituto Nacional de Técnica Aerospacial (Torrejón, Spain) and for ten years at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Reading, UK). I led the Climate Forecast Unit at the Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3) from 2010 to 2015. I am currently the head of the Department of Earth Sciences of the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS). The Department hosts more than 70 engineers, physicists, mathematicians and social scientists who try to bring the latest developments in supercomputing and data analysis to provide the best information and services on climate and air quality. I am author of more than 130 peer-reviewed papers (h index 36, scopus), member of several international scientific committees and supervisor of several postdocs, engineers and two PhD students.

Research interests

Global climate is highly variable, which implies that there is much more to understand than just climate change. Climate prediction aims at predicting the variations of climate at different time scales, ranging from one month to several years beyond the start of the forecast. I use an Earth system model based on differential equations to explore the limits of the forecast quality over different parts of the globe, in particular over Africa, South America, the Arctic and Southern Europe. I develop this model to explore the advantages of increasing its resolution to better reproduce the physical processes at the origin of climate variability. I also use statistical techniques to adapt the resulting climate information to specific user needs. Improving the application of this climate information to different socio-economic sectors, with a special focus on energy and disaster risk management, is one of my main targets to try to make a change in both society and the economy.

Selected publications

- Turco M, Jerez S, Doblas-Reyes F, AghaKouchak A, Llasat MC & Provenzale A 2018, 'Skilful forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal climate predictions', Nature Communications, 9, 2718.

- Ceglar A, Toreti A, Prodhomme C, Zampieri M, Turco M & Doblas-Reyes FJ 2018, 'Land-surface initialisation improves seasonal climate prediction skill for maize yield forecast', Scientific Reports, 8, 1322.

- Menegoz M, Bilbao R, Bellprat O, Guemas V & Doblas-Reyes FJ 2018, 'Forecasting the climate response to volcanic eruptions: prediction skill related to stratospheric aerosol forcing', Environmental Research Letters, 13, 6, 064022.

- Lledo L, Bellprat O, Doblas-Reyes FJ & Soret A 2018, 'Investigating the Effects of Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on the Wind Drought of 2015 Over the United States', Journal Of Geophysical Research-atmospheres, 123, 10, 4837 - 4849.

- Saurral RI, Doblas-Reyes FJ & García-Serrano J 2018, 'Observed modes of sea surface temperature variability in the South Pacific region', Climate Dynamics, 50, 3-4, 1129 - 1143.

- Macleod D, Torralba V, Davis M & Doblas-Reyes FJ 2018, 'Transforming climate model output to forecasts of wind power production: how much resolution is enough?', Meteorological Applications, 25, 1, 1 - 10.

- Exarchou E, Prodhomme C, Brodeau L, Guemas V & Doblas‐Reyes FJ 2018, 'Origin of the warm eastern tropical Atlantic SST bias in a climate model', Climate Dynamics, 51, 1819-1840.

Selected research activities

- Coordinating lead author of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Integovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

- Co-chair of the World Climate Research Programme Modeling Advisory Council.

- Co-author of 14 peer-reviewed publications in 2018.

- Member of the Research Advisory Committee of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (Pune, India).